Every Country's Population Race: 1950–2100 | Data in Motion #01
Short answer
- In 2022, India passed China as the most populous country — by just 240,000 people, the first change at No. 1 since UN records began.
- Japan falls from 5th to a projected 32nd by 2100.
- The UN projects world population to peak at about 10.29 billion in 2084, humanity's first turn to the shrinking side since records began.
Video
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Explained
In the video
150 years of humanity in 5 minutes. From 2.49 billion people in 1950 to the UN's projection for 2100, we race the populations of 237 countries and areas, bar by bar.
India and China at the top
Populations are UN figures for July 1 of each year. Figures through 2023 are UN estimates (built from censuses, surveys and records); figures from 2024 on are UN projections.
| Year | India | China | What happens |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,414,203,896 | 1,426,437,269 | China leads by 12.2 million |
| 2022 | 1,425,423,209 | 1,425,179,562 | India pulls ahead by 243,647 and takes first place |
| 2026 (projected) | 1,476,625,571 | 1,412,914,090 | "Today" in the video |
| 2061 (projected) | 1,701,283,705 | 1,121,174,714 | India's population peaks |
| 2100 (projected) | 1,505,251,749 | 633,368,105 | China is under half its 2026 size (about 45%) |
The 2022 handover is the first change at the top since UN records began in 1950. Between 2026 and 2100, China is projected to lose 779.5 million people, more than any other country or area.
The top 10
1950 and 2022 are estimates; 2100 is a projection under the UN's medium variant, its standard scenario. In the video, the projection years from 2024 on get a light blue background and a "PROJECTION" label. M = million.
| Rank | 1950 (estimate) | 2022 (estimate) | 2100 (projection) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China 544.0M | India 1,425.4M | India 1,505.3M |
| 2 | India 346.3M | China 1,425.2M | China 633.4M |
| 3 | United States 154.2M | United States 341.5M | Pakistan 511.0M |
| 4 | Russia 103.4M | Indonesia 278.8M | Nigeria 476.7M |
| 5 | Japan 86.4M | Pakistan 243.7M | DR Congo 430.7M |
| 6 | Germany 69.8M | Nigeria 223.2M | United States 421.3M |
| 7 | Indonesia 68.8M | Brazil 210.3M | Ethiopia 367.3M |
| 8 | Brazil 53.4M | Bangladesh 169.4M | Indonesia 295.5M |
| 9 | United Kingdom 50.1M | Russia 145.6M | Tanzania 262.8M |
| 10 | Italy 46.4M | Mexico 128.6M | Bangladesh 208.6M |
| Japan's rank | 5th, 86.4M | 12th, 125.0M | 32nd, 76.8M |
Russia and other former Soviet states are counted within today's borders, all the way back to 1950.
Japan's rank
| Year | Japan's rank | Japan's population | What happens |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 5th | 86.4M | Starting line |
| 1965 | 6th | 100.9M | Passed by Indonesia |
| 1979 | 7th | 117.5M | Passed by Brazil |
| 1993 | 8th | 124.8M | Passed by Pakistan |
| 1997 | 9th | 126.3M | Passed by Bangladesh |
| 2001 | 10th | 127.3M | Passed by Nigeria |
| 2009 | 10th | 128.2M | Japan's population peaks |
| 2020 | 11th | 126.3M | Passed by Mexico |
| 2022 | 12th | 125.0M | Passed by Ethiopia |
| 2050 (projected) | 17th | 105.1M | Around mid-century |
| 2100 (projected) | 32nd | 76.8M | Passed by Mali in 2097 |
Ranks are out of 237 countries and areas. Between 2027 and 2044, Egypt, DR Congo, the Philippines, Tanzania and Vietnam pass Japan, leaving it 17th (projected). In 2100, Mali is 31st (79.4M) and Uzbekistan 33rd (74.4M). The UN counts population as of July 1 each year, so its figures, including the year Japan's population peaked, can differ slightly from Japan's own census and population estimates.
World population
| Year | World population (billions) | Share living in Africa | What happens |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 2.49 | 9.1% | Starting line |
| 1964 | 3.26 | — | Grows 2.2% in a single year, the fastest growth of the whole race |
| 2026 (projected) | 8.30 | — | "Today" in the video, still growing by about two people a second |
| 2084 (projected) | 10.29 | — | World population peaks |
| 2100 (projected) | 10.18 | 37.5% | Finish line |
The 2084 peak is 10,289,315,239 people. World population rises every year from 1950 to 2084, and in 2085 it falls below the year before for the first time (projected). Projections carry uncertainty: the UN's 95% range for 2100 runs from roughly 9.0 to 11.4 billion. Africa's share is the UN's total for Africa divided by the world total (in the video's "If the world were 100 people" chart, that is 9 people in 1950 and 37.5 in 2100).
Life expectancy
| Year | World | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 46.4 years | — |
| 2023 | 73.2 years | 84.7 years |
Global life expectancy rose by 26.8 years between 1950 and 2023 ("about 27 years" in the video). Japan's 84.7 years is the 4th highest of 237 countries and areas.
What this episode shows
- In UN estimates, India overtook China in 2022 by about 240,000 people, the first change at the top since UN records began in 1950.
- While Japan slipped from 5th in 1950 to 12th in 2022, global life expectancy rose by about 27 years, from 46.4 to 73.2 (2023).
- In the UN's projection, Japan falls to 32nd by 2100, and world population peaks at 10.29 billion in 2084, then shrinks for the first time since UN records began.
Shorts
Sources
Where the facts and numbers in the video and on this page come from.
- Our World in Data (Population of 237 countries and areas, plus world and Africa totals, 1950–2100, processed from UN World Population Prospects 2024 (medium variant); estimates through 2023, projections from 2024. CC BY 4.0. Retrieved October 6, 2026)ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-with-un-projections.…
- United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024 (The UN estimates and projections (medium variant) behind the data above, including the 95% range for 2100. Latest edition as of October 4, 2026; the date it was accessed on the UN site was not recorded)population.un.org/wpp
- Our World in Data (Life expectancy from UN World Population Prospects 2024 (world in 1950 and 2023, Japan in 2023). CC BY 4.0. Retrieved October 5, 2026)ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy.csv
Voice, music, art
- Flags via flagcdn.com. Music (OpenTracks): “Sunrise” and “TALK and WALK” by かずち / “元気いっぱい！” by こばっと / “感動をあなたに” by Kyaai.
